Across all sports, I feel like we all have “hunches” or a “gut feeling” on occasion. I have a sneaky feeling about the Saints going to the Super Bowl this year. Watch out for the Texas Rangers this season. This kid Connor Bedard is going to take the Blackhawks all the way to the Stanley Cup.

In my experience, however, I haven’t ever heard someone tip me on a hunch about who will be the First Round Leader at a golf tournament. To win the whole event, yes, but never just who will be the First Round Leader – and I believe that speaks to the randomness of this market.

We said it here in this column back in March – at the beginning of the Florida Swing – the First Round Leader market has the highest hold percentage for the sportsbooks of all the golf betting markets – more so than the outright winner of the tournament. It is a very difficult, isolated, handicap that produces the most volatile results.

Now let’s throw in the fact that this week we are at a golf course we have only seen four times previously between the DP World Tour and the PGA TOUR. We are switching golf course styles – from traditional, parkland, American style golf courses on the PGA TOUR to a co-sanctioned event on a links-style course that will serve as the first of a two-event stay across the Atlantic – but offers little to no ShotLink data. Ouch.

It’s no wonder you don’t hear too many First Round Leader “hunches” because even coming up with a gut feeling is difficult in this particular market. If you can’t tell by now, I think this is a particularly difficult week to come up with a First Round Leader selection. This is more of a “needle in a haystack” search than is the outright tournament winner already – and now with what seems to be a pretty random tournament, sans much history, and we’re combining European and American players. It really is a lot to try to wrap one’s head around, but as always we are going to have some fun with it and see if we can find ourselves immersed in a good sweat in the wee hours of Wednesday night/Thursday morning to kick off the Genesis Scottish Open.

It is interesting to note that stateside, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting are the two most heavily weighted stats when it comes to pulling away from a field and obtaining a first-round lead. Here at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, we expect the greens to be very slow and that putting will be neutralized quite a bit because of it. Does this too put a bit of a wrench in our handicap?

Rain is in the forecast for each day of the tournament. It is expected on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, during the early wave of first round action. The wind appears to be pretty typical for seaside, links golf – in the neighborhood of 15 MPH.

Here’s a look at the players I have on my radar for FRL honors, with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Viktor Hovland (+3300)

Hovland has come out of the gates red-hot on a couple of occasions already this season. He opened with a 65 at the Masters to grab the first-round lead. He shot 64 the very next week at the RBC Heritage, good enough for second place after Round 1. Three areas of focus for me this week were Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Birdies or Better Gained. Over the last 36 rounds, Hovland is 10th in this field on approach, third off the tee, and ninth in Birdies or Better gained. Two courses I used as comps this week were Los Angeles Country Club and Riviera. Hovland recorded top-20 finishes at the U.S. Open last month and the Genesis Invitational back in February.

Shane Lowry (+4000)

Tom Doak designed The Renaissance Club and he also performed the overhaul of St. George’s Golf & Country Club in Canada where they played the Canadian Open in 2022 – where Lowry finished 10th. PGA National is another course I used this week as a corollary. Lowry has been excellent at the Honda Classic, having never missed a cut in six visits, and finishing fifth and second the last two years. Over the last 36 rounds, Lowry is 11th in this field for SG: Approach and 26th in SG: Off-the-Tee. In addition, he is one of the finest wind and links players in this field. Despite this being his debut, I believe he could find immediate success.

Jordan Smith (+9000)

And finally, one in which I have a bit of a hunch. Smith has always been a DP World Tour player that I have liked. A very good player but a little bit under the radar. Back in June, he took sixth at the Porsche European Open and 20th at the U.S. Open. He finished 24th here at the Scottish Open last year in his debut, firing rounds in the 60s for three straight days and sitting in third place heading into the final round. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 21st in this field for SG: Off-the-Tee and 33rd for SG: Approach.

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