I’ve been fighting against boarding the Scottie Scheffler express train for a long time but I’m finally ready to jump on … for a week at least.

The past five months have been rough as the Golfbet team member prepared to go against Scheffler at most turns. It started with me suggesting as great as he is, he hadn’t shown enough “killer instinct” in head-to-head situations or when facing adversity.

Scheffler promptly came from five behind to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and did the same to become the first repeat champion of THE PLAYERS.

From that point on I still have been a staunch advocate of fading Scheffler’s odds almost every time he has teed it up, because, quite frankly, they have been way too short.

Problem there is I said it when he was a +700 favorite, then a +500 favorite, and a +400 favorite… and he has found ways to win regardless.

I opened the PGA Championship with a column listing all the reasons to fade the Texan at the season’s second major championship but let’s face it, had he not been arrested in the early hours of Friday morning, he just might have proven me wrong again there!

And so we come to the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday this week and once again Scheffler sits atop the odds board at +350. I hate these odds. It is a number designed to stop you from betting on the world No. 1. But I can’t shake the feeling he will win. Again.

I know he hasn’t won the last two starts… shock horror… and I know he hasn’t won before at Muirfield Village, the site of this week’s Signature Event. But he easily could have over the last two editions where he finished third.

Most importantly, the saga from Valhalla, has finally turned a corner for Scheffler. With all charges dropped he can start to truly move on from the ordeal. On Tuesday he said as much from Ohio. The process can move forward and his golf can take center stage again. And he loves this course.

“This is a special place for me. I remember when I was in college, I would play the U.S. Open qualifier over at the other courses (near) here… and we would always come over and watch the practice round and stay an extra day and watch a little bit,” Scheffler reminisced.

“I always dreamed of coming here and playing in this tournament and it's a dream come true just to be here in the field. So I'm excited. It would mean a lot to me to be able to shake his (Jack Nicklaus’) hand and win this golf tournament with all the history here and what Mr. Nicklaus has meant to the game.”

This week will be the 14th consecutive trip to Muirfield Village for me and if anything has stood out over this stretch it is ball-striking always comes out on top. Even in the longshot years of William McGirt or David Lingmerth it was sublime striking that got them there.

Invariably the cream rises, especially since the renovations, as a major level test is put in front of the players. The last nine winners were all inside the top 12 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green on the way to their triumph.

Let’s take a look at some of Scheffler’s best stats from the Memorial Tournament last year.

• 1st: Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+1.205)
• 1st: Strokes Gained: Approach (+2.963)
• 1st: Strokes Gained: Around the Green (+1.006)
• 1st: Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (+5.173)
• 1st: Greens in Regulation (70.83%)
• 1st: Proximity to Hole (27 feet, 9 inches)
• 1st: Scrambling from the fringe (100%)
• 1st: Scrambling from 20-30 yards (100%)
• 1st: Final Round Scoring Average (67.00)
• 2nd: Rough Proximity (31’5”)
• 2nd: Left Rough Proximity (25’1”)
• 2nd: Fairway Proximity (26’1”)
• 2nd: Driving Distance – All Drives (305.3)
• 3rd: Strokes Gained: Total (+3.044)
• 3rd: Approaches from 125-150 yards (15’4”)
• 3rd: Approaches from >200 yards (37’7”)
• 3rd: Approaches from 175-200 yards from Rough (17’9”)
• 3rd: Scrambling from Rough (77.78%)

So how did this guy not win? Well it took a diabolically bad week on the greens. At 65th in the field in SG: Putting (-2.129 a round) Scheffler gave up an incredible 19.796 strokes on the greens to putting leader, and eventual playoff loser Denny McCarthy.

He finished one shot out of the playoff win by Viktor Hovland. Just one more putt. Scheffler missed a putt from inside 4 feet, another inside 5 feet, another inside 6 feet, missed two others from inside 7 feet, missed four others inside 8 feet and two more each from inside 9 feet and 10 feet. Overall that is 13 missed putts inside 10 feet.

Turns out, Scheffler was dealing with some off course stuff that week as well.

“I think all of us carry a lot more stuff off the golf course with us than we let on… last year at this time we had some stuff going on that I'm not going to get into," Scheffler said. "But reflecting on where my putting was at this time last year, I had two really bad weeks in a row between here and Colonial where I hit the ball tremendously, and without the drastic difference between my ball striking and putting, it would have just been a bad week.

“I would have lost a few strokes on the greens the first two days and I would have just missed the cut and gone home and it would be like, Oh, Scottie had a tough week, but since I almost won the tournament, it became such a huge story about how poorly I putted.”

But this season, Scheffler’s putter is not the liability it was. It isn’t brilliant, but it is certainly not terrible. In his 10 measured tournaments, he has gained strokes to the field average seven times and one of those was fractionally below at -0.037 (PGA Championship). He ranks 75th this season with a +0.100 mark.

“For me it was more about just sticking to my process and continuing to learn and grow. I wouldn't trade those weeks that I had back or the year I had last year just because I felt like I learned a lot about myself and what makes me tick, and I think it made me a better player today,” Scheffler continued.

“A lot of the challenges in this game, I think, can only toughen me up and I feel like at this point in my career I'm in a great head space mentally, I'm excited about where my game's at, and I'm ready to go out and compete this week and for the rest of the season.”

And Scheffler’s ball striking stats this season? He’s first on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, Approach and Total, second Off-the-Tee and fifth Around the Green.

So at the end of the day, as gut-wrenching as the +350 number on Scheffler is this week, I have to tell you all to consider him a winner anyway. There are options to take if you want more juice.

You could bet Scheffler for first round leader at +1000 as he leads Rd 1 Scoring Average this year or you could parlay Scheffler with the NBA Finals or NHL Stanley Cup Finals. Or you could do what I always advocate, watch live and try to catch some fluctuation in the odds. Pick a high point you are comfortable with and get on if that number hits. If he starts fast and you miss it, well it’s so short anyway it’s not the end of the world.

Other options – 'Without Scheffler' market

BetMGM has put up the without Scheffler market and here is where you can make moves without worrying about the Texan.

I told you all I would advocate for Collin Morikawa at the Memorial after his Sunday fade at the PGA Championship and getting +1000 without Scheffler as opposed to +1200 with him is something I can get on board with.

Morikawa was a winner at the Workday Charity Open, a one-off event on the rebound from COVID-19 held at Muirfield Village. He finished runner-up at the Memorial Tournament in 2021 and was well poised last season just a few shots back heading to Sunday only to WD from back spasms in his final round warmup.

I expect Morikawa to be in this tournament up to his eyeballs.

If you want a long shot option, check out Si Woo Kim (+5000). He has four straight top-20s at Muirfield Village and has gained +1.782 strokes on the field average a round in the last five seasons here.

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