PINEHURST, N.C. – Scottie Scheffler still has a great chance to win the U.S. Open – at least in the eyes of oddsmakers.

The world No. 1 had a rare hiccup Thursday, slowing his momentum from a stretch that has included five wins in his last eight starts. A 1-over 73 left Scheffler tied for 34th at Pinehurst, six shots behind co-leaders Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay and staring up at a bevy of big names in between.

An over-par start at most PGA TOUR events means that you can forget posing with the trophy. Even at a U.S. Open, it creates a deficit. But Scheffler is still respected on the odds board, as his +650 updated price at BetMGM Sportsbook puts him behind only McIlroy and alongside Ludvig Åberg, who beat him by five shots on Thursday. Cantlay, the first to reach the clubhouse at 5 under, is still behind Scheffler on the odds board at +800.

For perspective, Scheffler was +300 before play began – the shortest price in a major since 2009.

Scheffler wobbled from the start, making bogey on his third hole and never reaching red figures on a day when 15 players broke par. Among them: Sam Bennett, Aaron Rai and Jackson Suber, all of whom would have faced astronomical odds in a theoretical Round 1 head-to-head with Scheffler.

“I didn’t hit it, chip it or putt it very well,” Scheffler said. “But other than that, I played well.”

So why is Scheffler still priced so low? A big part of that is still the lingering belief that he can win. Fans need look back only as far as THE PLAYERS Championship, when Scheffler was nine shots back with 21 holes to go before he came storming from the pack and chased down the leaders. But perhaps an even better perspective is to look at the odds of the 15 players alongside him at 1-over 73.

Former Open champion Cameron Smith sports the lowest odds of the group – but he’s all the way down the board at +8000. Max Homa is tied with Scheffler and an eye-popping +10000. Veterans Brian Harman, Chris Kirk and Rickie Fowler are all slotted at +25000 – with longshots like Tim Widing and Max Greyserman even further back.

To put it another way: Scheffler is trailing 33 guys and sits six shots back…and he still has better odds than anyone not named Scottie Scheffler did before the tournament began.

So what are we to make of the short number and tilted scales toward the reigning Masters champ? A big component is the fact that U.S. Open markets have been up all year, with Scheffler attracting heaps of money as the betting favorite for a large chunk of that time. The folks behind the counter couldn’t escape the avalanche of Scheffler action: entering the week he was their top liability and accounted for nearly half of all dollars wagered (44.7%) in pre-tournament action.

Scheffler is entering a realm where the comparisons to Tiger Woods continue to pile up. Another one is the notion that a true price on the world No. 1 is hard to come by – because oddsmakers know that they’ll be besieged by casual bettors who may be less sensitive to price.

“I keep saying, time after time this season, that the price on Scheffler to win is so prohibitive,” Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at The Borgata, told Golfbet. “But it doesn’t stop people from betting him.”

All of that pre-tournament liability has to go somewhere, and its presence on the balance sheet is significant. It means that oddsmakers will be hesitant to open up Scheffler’s odds as he drifts down the leaderboard – for fear of a Sawgrass-like rally that could see folks cashing tickets at hefty live prices to go along with the mile-long queue of bettors who would still have bet him pre-tournament.

It results in a mix of variables where Scheffler’s position on the odds board diverges from where he stands on the actual leaderboard. He’ll be out early on Friday morning, eager to rectify some of the minor miscues that cost him in the opening round.

Rest assured that if he starts to find his groove and gets into red figures, those live prices will shorten up even further.

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