Last week on the PGA TOUR, it was go low or go home, but this week, as we head to Torrey Pines Golf Course, the focus shifts from making a zillion birdies to limiting the bogeys.

While it is true that The American Express winner Sepp Straka didn’t card a bogey until his 70th of 72 holes, it was his 27 birdies prior that helped him cruise to an impressive win in the Coachella Valley.

But if you want to triumph at the Farmers Insurance Open, you need a mix of survivor mentality to go with your aggression. If you try to take on Torrey Pines South Course, a former U.S. Open venue, you can be derailed in a hurry. And while traditionally players need to go low in their one and only round at Torrey Pines North Course, you also have to survive the South Course over three rounds.

The pure length at 7,765 yards, combined with the juicy rough and the small targets housing bumpy Poa annua greens, make the South Course a beast at times. And while in many recent Farmers Insurance Opens there has been precipitation in the lead-up to soften the course, the Southern California region has barely had a splash of rain in months.

This gives officials every chance to play it hard and fast, bringing with it a true grinders’ test.

Obviously, avoiding mistakes on the golf course leads to better results but at the Farmers Insurance Open, it is magnified. The last 11 winners all finished inside the top 10 that week in Bogey Avoidance and more importantly, the top four of Birdie to Bogey Ratio.

And the winners over the last six occasions here, have found a way to survive the hardest five holes of the week, while others faltered. Playing those holes three times in the week, a total of the 15 toughest holes on the South Course during their assault, was done in 1 over or better. Last year Matthieu Pavon did so in 1-under. Luke List proved a killer by getting through them in 4-under. When the going got tough, the tough got going.

You need an all-around effort to win at Torrey Pines. Seven of the last eight winners were inside the top 10 of at least two of the five Strokes Gained metrics of Tee-to-Green, Off-The-Tee, Approach the Green, Around-the-Green or Putting. The last three winners, Pavon, Max Homa and List, were inside the top 10 in three of the categories.

Last week, I advised bettors to look to the longshots, and at +6500, Straka fit the category even though he missed my card! This week, despite the fact Pavon was a wild longshot a year ago, I’m dipping heavily into the chalk.

I want proven performers in tough conditions with Torrey Pines' history on their side as well as some current form. The latter rules out Homa, who has been inside the top 20 in four of the last five years at Torrey Pines but hasn’t had a top 20 on TOUR since last May.

The co-favorite, Ludvig Åberg at +1000, is there for a reason. He’s coming off a T9 on debut at Torrey Pines a year ago and fits the prototype of players who have excelled there in the past. Åberg was 23rd on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance last season despite playing a huge chunk of it with a knee injury and he closed The Sentry 65-64 to finish T5 in his last start.

Despite the fact he missed the cut a year ago (under the weight of my selection), I’m heading back to the well for two-time Farmers Insurance winner Jason Day at +2800. Day’s efforts last week at The American Express, where he was T3, have cut into some of the odd’s value but I am still a firm believer of him on this layout. The fact he owns seven top-10s here, including the 2015 and 2018 titles, helps.

Day ranks eighth on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance, albeit from just two events, but was also well above the TOUR average in the last two seasons prior.

Two other players are also on my outright market radar but I’ll slot them into the Top 10 prop instead. Canadian Taylor Pendrith +360 and American Will Zalatoris +260 are both trending towards more Torrey Pines success.

Pendrith, a winner on TOUR last season, was T9 at Torrey Pines a year ago and also has a T16 on his resume in the event. The big hitter can get after it on the long course and now has fewer nerves to deal with.

Zalatoris, quite frankly, should have already won at Torrey Pines. A balky putter cost him dearly in 2022 when he missed a short putt to win and then fell in a playoff to List. He’s also had a T7 and T13 at Torrey. Others are also on his scent as Zalatoris already moved from +2500 to +2200 in the outright market this week off the back of a decent effort at The American Express where he was T12. Importantly, Zalatoris led the field a year ago with just five bogeys.

Plenty of folks might be looking at the likes of Sahith Theegala (+3000) or Stephan Jaeger (+6000) as well, and while they do have some proven success at Torrey Pines, you have to be confident the bunches of birdies they can make aren’t nullified by too many bogeys. If Jaeger was less volatile, his T3 a year ago could easily have been a victory.

If you do prefer longshots, look out for my Sleepers column on Tuesday where I’ll show some options at value!

BENNY’S BETTING CARD

• Outrights: Jason Day +2800, Ludvig Åberg +1000
• Top 10: Taylor Pendrith +360; Will Zalatoris +260
• Top 20: Aaron Rai +180

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