Bolton: Play long game when picking Genesis Scottish Open rosters
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DraftKings Odds: Which stars to parlay in Scotland
Written by Rob Bolton
As the FedExCup Playoffs rise into view – the three-event series is scheduled to begin on Aug. 7 – our stride can feel like it hastens. And with only four more tournaments contributing to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore until its field of 70 is determined, every decision can feel heavier than all that came before it.
This is totally normal. The trick on how to react actually is the same as the plan all along. Continue to adhere to the strategies that positioned you to pounce when the checkered flag is within view. Remember, you’re playing the long game that rewards your decisions most when FedExCup bonus points are quadrupled in the last three tournaments.
If you haven’t done so already, a simple but smart tactic that can generate confidence to remain patient is to log all of the starts that your primary opposition has made in Segment 3. Then sketch who you want to have countering and perhaps leveraging in the postseason.
While one strategy is to have holstered all three starts (for the FedExCup Playoffs) for both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy (while tabling decisions for who will be captain until forced to act), complementing them could be just as critical. What’s more, because it’s unlikely that the duo will sweep the victories, having them retreating into the role of support for perhaps another of your starters en route to a title would amplify your final push. It’s equal parts offense, defense and insurance.
Both this week’s Genesis Scottish Open and next week’s Open Championship allow for calculated secondary pieces to step forward. Although The Renaissance Club and Royal Portrush are not foreign to the majority of commits, the different style of play, the grass (i.e., slower greens) and the weather each is enough to tug on the reins, but a combination of at least two of those variables demand it.
Also remember that the winner in Scotland receives 50 FedExCup bonus points, but a mere fourth-place finish in all three postseason events kicks back 54. Furthermore, the winner of The Open rewards 75 FedExCup bonus points, while a third-place finish in each postseason event yields 76. So, take advantage of the uneven playing field as it concerns the scoring system.
All but three of the 156 qualifiers for The Open have been determined. The last three will be the highest finishers this week. For more detail and the alphabetical list, click or tap here.
Captain
Tommy Fleetwood … He was in a grouping of one among my considerations for this role. Even if it’s a push, it’s not a loss, and that enhances the leverage of roster and clock management. With a solid week in Scotland, don’t be surprised if the recommendation is to run him back for The Open.
Other considerations
- Robert MacIntyre ... Although Rory McIlroy (No. 1) and Scottie Scheffler (No. 2) sit atop my Power Rankings, neither is an advisable play, much less as your captain. So, I’m ruling them out. Look no further than the defending champion, who is No. 4 in the Power Rankings and for whom defending a title in his homeland would be just as gratifying as winning it in the first place. The lefty also was the runner-up in 2023.
- Xander Schauffele ... For the gamer who’s way back but won’t quit until the whistle blows, he is served on a silver platter just for you. That he won the inaugural edition of the tournament as a PGA TOUR stop in 2022 is a bonus, as is last year’s T15. Rather, your angle is that frontrunners will have him reserved for the FedExCup Playoffs where he has thrived. If they do, it’ll be in large part due to a strong week in Scotland. Consider that he’s 57th in FedExCup points, so he still has work to do to qualify for the postseason. He’ll be the defending champion next week, so he’ll want to arrive at Royal Portrush with confidence more then he would at any other major if for no other reason than not have to continue to explain why he’s a bubble boy for the Playoffs.
Rounding out the roster
Keeping it simple with guys who have cut their teeth on the DP World Tour, experience (and success) at The Renaissance Club, and form upon arrival. You could build two or three teams using that formula.
While Schauffele likely will stick as my first guy off the bench, I might sub Morikawa out for a guy who isn’t as well-positioned in the FedExCup. When I submitted my lineup for Expert Picks, I didn’t realize that he’s 15th, and I’ve already burned one start.
My starters
- Tommy Fleetwood (C)
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Ryan Fox
- Robert MacIntyre
My bench
- Xander Schauffele (1)
- Collin Morikawa (2)
Careful
For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.
J.J. Spaun ... He’s No. 13 in the Power Rankings in part out of mad respect for what he achieved at Oakmont, but there’s also a twisted perspective that would have landed him in this section for the U.S. Open for essentially the same reason (despite that outcome). When he was defeated by McIlroy in a playoff at THE PLAYERS Championship, it both validated strong whiffs of form that preceded it and presented as a one-off in the steepest of competitions. And then he played to the script as a non-factor in the immediate aftermath of that one-sided overtime at TPC Sawgrass. This is to say that he’s about as close to the center point on the spectrum of expectations. His success is too fresh to appreciate, but don’t be surprised if he contends again this week. Because I’m forever on the record as conservative with my philosophy and I don’t sit on fences, he’s a contrarian.
Ludvig Åberg ... Speaking of contrarians, the tall drink of water from Sweden has been wearing the label for most of the season. Despite only one top 10 in his last 11 starts (seventh, Masters), he’s fifth-most owned at 36.3 percent. I get it, but I stopped holding my breath for him to deliver like he had during his first year and a half before an illness derailed his consistency early this year. Even the doubt following surgery on his left knee last September was short-lived.
Justin Thomas ... Slotted at eighth-most rostered at 25.9 percent but he’s among the perfect next tier when mapping out starts for the postseason in which he’s had so much success. At fifth in the FedExCup, he’ll be able to give it a go in all three legs. His mixed history at The Renaissance Club seals the deal. While he recorded a pair of top 10s before it was a PGA TOUR event, he’s gone MC-T60-T62 since it has contributed to the FedExCup.
Sepp Straka ... At last check, he was the last of 12 selected by at least one-fifth of the gamers, but he’s yet to lock it in at The Renaissance Club where he’s 0-for-2.
Returning to competition: Genesis Scottish Open
Corey Conners ... In an update written by Adam Stanley, who’s a regular contributor at PGATOUR.com, it was only late last week when Conners acknowledged that he’s still not all the way back from the injury to his right wrist suffered during his opening round of the U.S. Open, which is almost a month ago now. Because Canada’s top-ranked talent plans on contending at The Open Championship next week, our classic reaction is to observe only at The Renaissance Club. While it’s tempting to invest based on a T19 in 2023 and a T10 last year, in effect those results may only further motivate him to give it a go, but he also won’t want to aggravate the injury and wipe away his chance at the claret jug.
Viktor Hovland ... No matter my viewpoint, this boils down to how much you’re willing to trust the 27-year-old. With a third-round 63 at the Travelers Championship, he was T14 entering the finale, and then withdrew after two holes, citing an injured neck. While it must’ve been a doozie to call it quits while lurking, it was three weeks ago, which classifies as an eternity for a professional athlete without a history of physical problems. Because he was manufacturing results since a surprise win at the Valspar Championship in March, there’s room for him on your betting card and in DFS, albeit fractionally, but his value as a contrarian in fantasy applies only if you’re way back in your fantasy league and need stars to align this week, and next week, and ...
Andrew Putnam ... Because he hasn’t qualified for The Open Championship, it’s a great sign that he’s kept his commitment at The Renaissance Club after a back injury abruptly ended his John Deere Classic during the second round. No matter one’s level of comfort on a charter flight, that’s a long way to go immediately after dealing with that malady. Had been in a groove, too, so he could be sneaky given his propensity to keep his ball in play and get it in the hole.
Matti Schmid ... He deserves an asterisk because he actually got back after it at the BMW International Open in his native Germany last week and placed T7. An illness forced him out of his final round of the Travelers Championship two weeks prior, so he’s good to go. The streaky talent presents potential pop in DFS.
Returning to competition: ISCO Championship
J.B. Holmes ... Of course he’s ready to roll in his home state, but the 43-year-old from Campbellsville, Kentucky, hasn’t pegged it in earnest anywhere since the inaugural Black Desert Championship nine months ago, and a sore back forced him to withdraw during his opening round. Because he has no better status than that as a former PGA TOUR winner, he doesn’t have any fantasy value. However, should he catch fire now, he could serve as a spot start in DFS later even though it’s been 5.5 years since his last top-35 finish. Injuries compounded with age have taken a toll.
Membership matters
Bronson Burgoon and MJ Daffue ... Both PGA TOUR non-winners are playing to retain their PGA TOUR cards at the ISCO Championship this week. If neither withdraws before the first round, he’ll be burning the last start on his medical extension. To fulfill his terms, Burgoon needs no worse than a two-way share of second place, but a two-way T30 will allow him to remain eligible for the FedExCup Playoffs. Daffue needs to swing for the fence and only a victory would get the job done. For more details on them and all others with medical extensions this season, review my post on X here.
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