Running with Rick: Sam Burns poised to break victory drought at BMW Championship

The PGA TOUR heads to Bellerive Country Club for the penultimate playoff event of the 2026 season. The BMW Championship will play host to the final 50 players in the FedExCup standings in what could feel like a major championship test.

Bellerive was last seen on the professional stage as the host venue for the 2018 PGA Championship — an event that was won by Brooks Koepka. That was the second time Bellerive played host to a PGA Championship, and it also hosted the BMW Championship in 2008 when Camilo Villegas won.

The Robert Trent Jones design is a brute, stretching over 7,400 yards as a par 70. This layout will demand distance off the tee, which is in sharp contrast to the skill set that was required last week at TPC Southwind. The driving task is not simply about length, however. With crowned fairways and reverse cambering, the drivers receiving the most reward will be able to work the ball in both directions so that their ball not only lands in the short grass but stays there.

The large greens are well protected by humps, hollows and bunkering that will challenge players from tee to green. This could truly feel like major championship conditions, as accomplished ball-strikers and scramblers will likely rise to the top of the board.

With only 50 players remaining and the top 30 advancing to the TOUR Championship, there are also a variety of subplots involving golfers who will know what position on the leaderboard they need to achieve to continue their season. We’ll crunch all the numbers and create a betting card that leans toward battle-tested stars.

Since THE PLAYERS Championship, Sam Burns has been one of the best players in the world. During that time frame, which spans 13 starts, Burns has gained +1.73 strokes per round. The only player better than that is Scottie Scheffler.

Burns plays a unique style of golf that is led by his putter. He’s the best TOUR player on the greens, and he’s gaining nearly a stroke per round during that same 13-event stretch. Being the best putter on TOUR doesn’t mandate success, but it’s simply one of the weapons in the bag for Burns. He’s also one of the better iron players on TOUR, and he’s long enough off the tee to make a difference.

His summer months have been special, and he’s piled up four top-five finishes in his last six starts, with opportunities to win some of the game’s biggest events. He’s come up empty-handed in the wins department, but that ends at Bellerive. Burns is my pick to win the BMW Championship at +1475 as he looks for his first TOUR win since 2023.

The No. 1 player in the world looked like it again last week as he added a second victory to his résumé in 2026. He defeated a field of the top players in Memphis to double his 2026 win total, going from one to two. Despite the “lack” of wins, Scheffler has nine podium finishes in 18 events this year and has finished outside the top 25 just once.

He’s unlocked new skills and is currently in the midst of the best putting year of his career while continuing to dominate in the tee-to-green categories. His game translates to every course in the world, but Bellerive will demand execution every step of the way and that should be exciting for Scheffler backers. He’s the poster boy for “winning is hard,” which is why I’ll continue to back Scheffler in the top-five market this week. The odds for that outcome are currently -166.

It wasn’t a particularly great week for Justin Rose, who finished T39 last week in Memphis. However, he closed with a 64 on Sunday, which beat the field average by more than six strokes. He had taken a month off between starts, so it was reasonable to think he’d be a little rusty when he got to the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

The most impressive thing about Rose is how he rises to the occasion. His best finishes this year have come at the most difficult courses on the schedule. His six top-10 finishes have come at Torrey Pines (South), Augusta National, Shinnecock Hills, Aronimink, TPC Sawgrass and Muirfield Village. He shines on these courses because they require an immense amount of patience, strategy and execution, which is exactly what Bellerive will ask of him this week.

If Rose can play out of the fairway, he’ll be able to contend this week. I’m tempering expectations and deploying Rose in the top-20 market, which is currently priced at +132 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic if you are a backer of Viktor Hovland. Of course, the victory at the Travelers Championship, where he took down Scheffler, does plenty of convincing. He also earned a third-place finish at the RBC Canadian Open and a T19 result last week in Memphis.

He is volatile, however. In his last seven starts, he’s either finished inside the top 20 or missed the cut in all of them. It’s all or nothing for Hovland, who plays a high-variance style of golf. His finish last week doesn’t tell the whole story, and I believe he played better than that result indicates. He made a few bad swings on Saturday that cost him multiple strokes after playing nearly flawless golf across the first two days of the event.

Hovland possesses the ball-striking prowess to tackle Bellerive thanks to his superb driving and elite long-iron play. His short game has turned a corner, and he’s gained strokes around the green in four of his last five events. The Norwegian has one of the largest ranges of outcomes in this field, so I’m looking to take advantage of his upside. I’ve settled on his top-10 number, which can currently be found at +180.

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