PINEHURST, N.C. – And then there were eight.

While we still have 36 holes to go at Pinehurst No. 2, the weight of history at the U.S. Open and recent major championships say we know exactly which players still have a shot at glory.

Justin Ray, stats guru from Twenty First Group, rightly pointed out that in the last 16 majors – and also 26 of the last 28 U.S. Open championships – the eventual winner has been within three shots of the lead.

U.S. Open rookie Ludvig Åberg played like a seasoned veteran on Friday to shoot 1-under 69 in hot, hard and fast conditions, moving to 5-under for the week and into the solo lead. But three players sit just a shot behind the young Swedish star.

Former U.S. Open winner Bryson DeChambeau (69), former FedExCup winner Patrick Cantlay (71) and former World Cup winner for Belgium Thomas Detry (67) all sit 4-under.

Four-time major winner Rory McIlroy (72), six-time PGA TOUR winner Tony Finau (69) and 2024 Farmers Insurance Open-winning Frenchman Matthieu Pavon (70) are all 3-under.

Former Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama (66) is the last of the serious contenders at 2-under, three shots off the pace.

Just for the record, six players sit at 1-under, including PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele, along with Tom Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Corey Conners, Tim Widing and Tyrrell Hatton.

Here are the latest outright odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

• +320: Ludvig Åberg (5-under, first)
• +400: Bryson DeChambeau (4-under, T2)
• +450: Rory McIlroy (3-under, T5)
• +900: Patrick Cantlay (4-under, T2),
• +1200: Xander Schauffele (1-under, T9); Tony Finau (3-under, T5)
• +1600: Hideki Matsuyama (2-under, eighth)
• +2000: Thomas Detry (4-under, T2)
• +4000: Matthieu Pavon (3-under, T5)

You can see one man, Schauffele, is amongst the top odds despite not being inside the top eight on the leaderboard. Call him the wildcard if you will. He’s ranked second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach but is 72nd of the cut makers in SG: Off-the-Tee. He was near the rear end of the entire 156-man field in the metric. So unless he finds a way to straighten up off the tee, he won’t be able to make up the ground.

Here is my ranking of the eight players who can win.

1: Ludvig Åberg +320

My biggest take away from walking Friday’s second round with Åberg was his veteran-like demeanor. The Swede looked like he’d played 15 U.S. Opens, not teeing it up in his first and just third major overall. After contending at the Masters, and seeing his maturity on Friday, I am becoming a serious believer in this guy. Ranks first in Driving Accuracy, Greens In Regulation, SG: Off-the-Tee, and he has yet to have a three-putt.

2: Bryson DeChambeau +400

The 2020 U.S. Open champion was my draw last night at +750, and I didn’t see a reason to jump off yet. Coming off a near miss at the PGA Championship where he was runner up to Schauffele, DeChambeau leads the field in Driving Distance, has yet to three putt, and he's third in the field in Par-3 and Par-4 Scoring. He is inside the top 27 of all SG metrics.

3: Tony Finau +1200

This might raise some eyebrows given Finau is not a known major championship contender, but I was extremely impressed with his aggressive approach on Friday. Finau has a gameplan to win, not one to defend. He was not afraid.

“There were some pins today that I thought the short side was actually where the green was," Finau told Golfbet. "So for that reason, I thought there were some holes that I could hit at. I was okay being short-sided because it was an uphill shot. I will agree (that I was) being aggressive.

“I thought because I was playing from the fairway, there were some pins that I was like, 'Okay, we talked about it before the round and said, these are pins that are pretty much green lights.' The short side is actually missing to the opposite side because that shot was going to bring in the other side and the other miss.

“My caddie and I have done a good job so far just preparing and knowing when to hit at flags and when not to.”

Finau leads the field in Sand Saves, Par-5 Birdies or Better, Scrambling inside 10 yards and is second on Driving Accuracy, GIR, Par-5 Scoring, SG: Tee-to-Green and Bounce Back.

4: Rory McIlroy +450

The fade from last night appeared accurate at +250, but will you make the same decision at +450? Since winning his fourth major in 2014, McIlroy has 20 major top 10s without winning. He is going to need to buck a serious trend. He leads the field in Total Driving and has two hole outs while avoiding any three putts. He also leads the field in Bogey Avoidance and SG: Tee-to-Green. He ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee

5: Hideki Matsuyama +1600

The former Masters winner had the round of the day on Friday with a 66. He ranks first in the field in the key Pinehurst stat of Scrambling.

6: Patrick Cantlay +900

The eight-time PGA TOUR winner and former FedExCup winner hasn’t been a major contender. In 29 major appearances, Cantlay has just four top 10s and three of those were T8, T9 and T9. Leads the field in Sand Saves, Par-3 Birdies or Better, Putts per Round, Front 9 Scoring and Fairway Proximity, and he's second in total birdies. If he maintains his form, he’s a chance, but I’m worried he may regress.

7: Thomas Detry +2000

Detry was T4 at the recent PGA Championship, but just when he looked great on Friday, getting to 6-under and the lead, he got spooked and dropped two shots in his last four holes.

8: Matthieu Pavon +4000

Similar to Detry, when the reality set in, he finished bogey-bogey. He's going to need to really step things up against elite company.