CROMWELL, Conn.– Wind drove the field wild during round two of the Travelers Championship. On a par 70 layout covering well under 6,900 yards, the 70-man scoring average was +0.7 strokes over par. That led me to think, with the challenging conditions, how close we were to the highest single-round scoring average in TPC River Highlands history.

You have to go back 41 years to 1984 and the first time the Travelers was contested at TPC Connecticut. What we now know as TPC River Highlands. On July 27, 1984, in the second round of the Sammy Davis Jr. Greater Hartford Open, the scoring average was +4.0 strokes over par.

As I watched the play today, I honestly believed the scoring average would be higher, but with a signature field full of elite golfers, it just wasn’t. Today’s average would not have even cracked the top 35 all-time highest one-day totals in Travelers’ history. Twenty-two players turned in cards under par, and 34 are one under or better after 36 holes in Cromwell, Connecticut.

Today’s top of the leaderboard can, however, help us prepare our weekend wagers. Justin Thomas was excellent on approach and with his putter, recording a stellar 64. Tommy Fleetwood fired a back-nine 30 to jump from T13 into a tie for the lead. Fleetwood, like JT, was great on the greens and with his iron game. Our blueprint for success still holds true through two rounds. The wind will be half as strong tomorrow, and the temperature will be much higher.

Scottie Scheffler (-105) is still our betting favorite. With two top 20 players in the world tied with him, I’m still not ready to back the world’s number one. Scheffler did struggle with his irons in round two and may have opened the door. It’s not wide open, but I believe one or two of these pursuers can compete.

Three strokes off the lead is Nick Taylor (+4000, +2200 w/o Scheffler). Taylor has hit 28 of 36 GIRs and is currently seventh in Strokes Gained: Total. We will need a closer to combat Scottie, and Nick has proven on several occasions over the past three seasons that he is a winner. Taylor’s approach proximity average is 30’ (which is equal to Scheffler), and he is fourth in converting birdie chances on these TPC greens. One more weekend bet I like is Ben Griffin to finish top 10 (+300). The recent two-time winner continues to play well. His irons have been excellent, and that’s the primary key I’m looking for to score.

I fear Tommy Fleetwood (+550, +300 w/o Scheffler) and Jason Day (+1400, +750 w/o Scheffler) will wither as the temperature rises (literally and figuratively) over the weekend. Day’s weekend scoring average is ranked ninety-eighth on TOUR. Since this became a signature event, Jason has not finished inside the top 40 at TPC River Highlands. Day must continue to score and sitting at sixty-third on the season-long scoring average list, I fear he won’t. Fleetwood is often mentioned as the best player not to have won on the PGA TOUR. Carrying those expectations against Scottie in full flight is a burden I do not wish to back. Tommy’s Sunday scoring average on the PGA TOUR reflects a significant leaderboard slide.

Conditions will be far less challenging over the weekend than what I witnessed today. A calmer setting will allow the best Sunday scorers an opportunity to climb the leaderboard. Strokes gained “history” can be a tough trend to break. Make sure you tail the closers, as even Travelers doesn’t offer insurance for leaderboard gravity.

*- DraftKings odds