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Draws and Fades: Rory McIlroy presents best betting value on TOUR Championship leaderboard

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Draws and Fades

Rory McIlroy ends his Friday with birdie at TOUR Championship

Rory McIlroy ends his Friday with birdie at TOUR Championship

    Written by Greg DuCharme

    So often this season we’ve asked the same question on Friday nights: Is this week for Tommy Fleetwood? Fleetwood has been among the most consistent players on the PGA TOUR for years, but unfortunately, the narrative has not changed. Fleetwood has a record-setting 30 top-five finishes and 44 top-10 finishes on TOUR without a win. These challenges have yet to affect Fleetwood’s attitude.

    “You learn from those experiences,” Fleetwood said ahead of the TOUR Championship. “I would rather you be questioning me about not finishing tournaments off than not questioning me at all about anything.”

    Through 36 holes, Fleetwood is tied for the lead at East Lake Golf Club at 13-under, shooting one of three 63s for the day. Fleetwood is among the most complete players in the game, currently second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and second in Strokes Gained: Putting. He continues to find fairways, hitting 12 of 14 in Round 2. Fleetwood gained nearly two strokes approaching the green, ranking third for the day. This combination will surely have Fleetwood in the mix come Sunday afternoon, but as we’ve learned far too often, this story is far from over.

    Oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have some faith in the Englishman, as he’s now listed as the betting favorite heading into the weekend.

    Updated odds to win TOUR Championship (via FanDuel)

    • +220: Tommy Fleetwood (-13)
    • +240: Russell Henley (-13)
    • +500: Scottie Scheffler (-8)
    • +800: Cameron Young (-10)
    • +1200: Patrick Cantlay (-10)
    • +1400: Robert MacIntyre (-10)
    • +2500: Rory McIlroy (-7)

    If you think driving distance is the most important aspect to success on TOUR, don’t tell co-leader Russell Henley. Henley is last in the field in Driving Distance, averaging just 288.6 yards off the tee. However, he finds himself in a tie for the lead through 36 holes.

    Henley demonstrates the importance of driving accuracy at East Lake, currently leading the field for the week. Finding the fairways has helped him avoid bogeys so far, making just one in the first two rounds. It’s no surprise that the putter cooled off for Henley in Round 2. He made over 200 feet of putts in his opening 61. The second round was a different story, making just under 61 feet. He’s still in a great position heading into the weekend.


    Russell Henley holes out from bunker to start his day at TOUR Championship

    Russell Henley holes out from bunker to start his day at TOUR Championship


    After an 8-under par 62 and the round of the day, Cameron Young is right in the mix. As is the case with most 62s, the stat sheet for Young is remarkable. He finished his second round with nine consecutive one-putts. Lights-out putting is no surprise for Young, as he entered this week seventh on TOUR in SG: Putting. However, the longest putt he made on the second nine was just under 7 feet. He hit seven approach shots inside that mark, ultimately leading the field in SG: Approach for the day, gaining over three strokes to the field. This is the best iron play round of his season.

    If you saw Scottie Scheffler slamming his club into the sand or throwing his golf ball into the lake, you may be surprised to know that he’s in sixth place. Scheffler made three bogeys on a day characterized by low scores and birdies, and he was clearly frustrated. He lost strokes to the field in all four major categories. Despite his struggles, we still saw the greatness of Scheffler in this round. After driving it into an impossible lie on 17, Scheffler was forced to chip out sideways. From there, he hit his approach shot from 112 yards to 2 feet, saving par, before a birdie on No. 18.

    Currently, Scheffler is five back at 8-under. Last week at the BMW Championship, he was also five back entering the weekend and still won by two shots. That’s why Scheffler is still the third favorite to win according to oddsmakers, but his +500 price is well above his pre-tournament odds. He’s certainly not out of this despite a slow day, so an opportunity to add Scheffler to the card at a higher price than most of his pre-tournament prices all year is certainly tempting, given the limited field.

    But the best value on the board belongs to another recent major champion: Rory McIlroy. McIlroy has won the FedExCup on three prior occasions, most recently in 2022. Through two rounds, he sits six shots off the lead at 7-under. His 3-under 67 Friday was bogey-free, but it left plenty of room for improvement over the final 36 holes.

    McIlroy demonstrated improved control with the driver compared to last week, hitting nine fairways. Unfortunately, he was unable to take full advantage as he did not make a putt longer than 7 feet until a 12-footer on No. 18. Part of the problem was his approach play, as he was only able to hit two approaches inside 12 feet and ultimately lost strokes to the field with his irons.

    With McIlroy’s pedigree at East Lake, there’s still a strong chance he can put together a comeback this weekend. At +2500 in the outright market and with just six names above his on the leaderboard, he’s worth an add heading into the weekend.

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