Draws and Fades: Neal Shipley ready to turn corner at Black Desert

After the second round of the Bank of Utah Championship, I feel like I can either pat myself on the back or admit I was completely wrong.

I said Kevin Roy (+390 at FanDuel Sportsbook) was a golfer you could potentially fade, and instead, he went out and put together one of the best rounds of the day. Now he’s firmly in contention and one shot behind Austin Smotherman heading into the weekend.

On the other hand, one thing I did get right was how quickly golfers can build momentum at Black Desert. You really are one good round, or even one good swing away from finding a rhythm. Because of the elevation, the course doesn’t play nearly as long as the scorecard suggests, and the fairways are a mile wide. If you’re swinging it well, there are plenty of opportunities to go low.

Just look at Smotherman, now the +310 favorite. He put together the round of the day Friday and now finds himself with a one-stroke lead heading into moving day.

Realistically, anybody who made the cut should feel like they’re still live to win this golf tournament.

We’ve already seen several sub-63 rounds, with players catapulting up the leaderboard in a matter of hours. It feels like the type of golf course where somebody could go out Saturday, shoot 60 or even flirt with 59 if the conditions cooperate and completely change the tournament.

That’s why I wouldn’t get too caught up chasing the names at the top of the board heading into the weekend. This is the type of course where I’d rather look further down the odds board and find a few long shots who have either been playing well overall or showing something encouraging in one area of their Strokes Gained profile.

Maybe somebody is absolutely flushing their irons but hasn’t made anything on the greens yet. Maybe the putter has been carrying them, but the ball-striking numbers are starting to turn around. Those are the golfers I want to target at higher prices, and that’s exactly how I approached my bets heading into the weekend.

Neal Shipley to win (+3000)

I really want to bet Neal Shipley, and no, it’s not because of the long, flowing, gorgeous hair.

Shipley went out and carded an 8-under round while actually losing strokes on the putting greens. He’s been one of the better players in the field from tee to green and is still within striking distance heading into the weekend. On a golf course where we’ve already seen players make massive jumps up the leaderboard, five shots is nothing.

It’s also bigger than one round. Shipley feels like a golfer whose game is starting to turn a corner. He finished T3 at the Biltmore Championship just two weeks ago, with his ball-striking finally starting to match the upside we’ve seen from him before. He gained with the putter that week, too, showing that when everything comes together, the complete game is there.

I’ve always thought Shipley was on the cusp of becoming a really good PGA Tour player. He has the length, the ball-striking, and yes, the personality and confidence to go with it. Now he gets two rounds with very little pressure and a golf course where one heater can completely change the leaderboard.

From five shots back, +3000 at FanDuel feels incredibly generous for a player trending in the right direction.

Jackson Koivun Top 20 (+350)

How about a long shot? And by long shot, I mean taking the pre-tournament favorite after he made the cut right on the number.

I’m looking at Jackson Koivun to finish inside the top 20 at +350.

Koivun came into the week as the favorite after an undefeated Presidents Cup debut, and the first two rounds just never really went his way. But this bet isn’t about backing what we’ve seen through 36 holes. It’s about knowing the skill set he has and understanding how quickly things can change at this golf course.

If there’s somebody in this field capable of going out Saturday and shooting 60, then following it with a 63 on Sunday, it’s Koivun. At that point, we’re not sweating a top-20 finish. He could very easily find himself pushing toward the top 10.

There’s also a different type of pressure on a lot of players this weekend. Plenty of guys are fighting for FedExCup points and their Tour status heading into 2027. Koivun doesn’t have that problem. His card is secure thanks to his win at the 3M Open, and while there’s still plenty to play for, he can go out there and play free and loose.

I don’t think he’s close enough to seriously chase down this tournament from where he sits. But at +350 to finish inside the top 20, I think this is a really fun bet to take.