Bolton: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler among top players for fantasy league chasers

The PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf season has been whittled down to two tournaments. Only this week’s BMW Championship and next week’s TOUR Championship remain. The golfers comprising the field of 50 at Bellerive Country Club will be boxing out for position for one of 30 spots at the TOUR Championship. Turnover is possible, but this is the FedExCup Playoffs, for which a dizzying array of if-then contingencies are required, even if a guy outside the bubble delivers the finish he needs to consider qualifying.

The difference between their reality and our fantasy is that we’re guaranteed two weeks of work, or a fortnight of fun as it were.

For the gamers who connected with captain Scottie Scheffler at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, it’s a good thing for the rest of us that his eight-stroke margin of victory also didn’t figure into his 346-point performance. Talk about clutch, though. Expectations forever are way up there for the 21-time PGA TOUR winner, but that output still exceeded those held by even the greediest among us. If you were on board, there’s relief with your celebration. If you weren’t, all you can do is tip your visor as you lick your wounds.

The upshot is that it’s not over. When conditions are inclement, always play until the horn sounds.

All gamers remain empowered offensively by the absence of a cut, as well as the prospect of riding the kind of soul-crushing beatdown authored by Scheffler in Memphis. League leaders always can use the clock as leverage, but we’re all in the same boat regarding the restriction of three starts per golfer per Segment. That’s what concerns the front-runners.

Having logged how many starts are remaining for all golfers rostered by your targets in Segment 3, your job now is to cross-check the likelihood of advancing in the Playoffs against availability, both for you and your opposition. For all golfers with exactly one start to burn, pacers will be more likely to reserve the most valuable for the TOUR Championship. That’s leverage and insurance in this unpredictable universe. But those same pacers have soft spots that can be exposed at Bellerive. Scoring should be favorable, which means that fantasy scoring will follow in kind.

Map out the most strategic of your 12 starts to burn across these last two weeks. Then determine who steps forward as the best choice to be your captain, albeit in the context of with whom your opposition is likely to counter. Canceling captains rewards only leaders at this point, but with them in position to be equal parts patient and defensive, you absolutely must strike at the BMW Championship.

Because Chris Breece and Mike Glasscott (a.k.a “Glass”) are the threats in my little league, head over to my X page where I share a breakdown of all their starts burned and remaining. If you haven’t yet done the same for your purposes, it can also be helpful. It’s also where you can connect with me publicly or privately for advice and analysis specific to your situation.

Captain

Scottie Scheffler ... The No. 1 in my Power Rankings, duh. Quite simply, with one start remaining and in my position in pursuit, I have no choice. And stranger things have happened. I was once on the opposite (read: preferred) side of this scenario in a one and done many years ago, and ended up losing to a timely podium finish. My slayer, Mark Immelman, never let me forget about it!

Other considerations

• Sam Burns ... He’s the right move for front-runners because he checks the boxes for both offense and defense at the penultimate stop. Although the No. 2 in the Power Rankings hasn’t taken a title in stroke-play competition in over four years, it’s a drought that will not last forever. Similar arguments could be made for Hideki Matsuyama (No. 3), Si Woo Kim (No. 4), Xander Schauffele (No. 5) and Ludvig Åberg (No. 6), so review your starts boards for the most sensible selection. It’s always nice to have options.
• Rory McIlroy ... The intangibles forever trump the analytics for this guy, so for the most faithful of gamers, last week’s 66th-place finish was gold. It’ll deter the gamers who adhere most to recency bias. Because he’s already in the books for having won the most FedExCups – three – my narrative last week was that, to stay uber-motivated, he could have set a goal to become the first in history to sweep the Playoffs. (Hey, there’s always something to accomplish for the first time.) While the result was forgettable, he’s now warm, and he’s going to want to feel the competitive juices of contention with the promise of a shot at a fourth FedExCup up next.

Rounding out the roster

As laid out above, my calculus is based on my position and starts remaining for Chris and Glass. I’m in a position of strength in spots, but I’m exhausting my last start on Scheffler, and I have just one remaining for Burns. All of the other four can be options again next week.

My starters

• Ludvig Åberg
• Patrick Cantlay
• Xander Schauffele
• Scottie Scheffler (C)

My bench

• Rory McIlroy (1)
• Sam Burns (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which aren't written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

• Cameron Young ... Populating in about a quarter of the rosters saved at last check, he justified my perspective in this space at the FedEx St. Jude with a T39. Although he’s earned inclusion in the conversation for Player of the Year, he’s still a contrarian.

• Collin Morikawa ... He’s not among those mentioned frequently for Player of the Year, and his ownership percentage is just shy of 18%, but he’s been just as inconsistent as Young among the elite. Now, if the BMW Championship was earlier in the Segment or even as recent as last week, both guys would have presented as terrific fits given their tee-to-green strengths on an unfamiliar track, but only the gamers who need to clear the fence both this week and next should consider either or both right now.
• Justin Thomas ... With a smidge over 8% in ownership, the coolness is self-evident for the 2017 FedExCup champion. He’s 44th in points this year with just two top 10s, but he bagged another five top 20s. In that, he’s exempt into all Signature Events in 2027. It’s a fine body of work following a delayed start, which actually was early in his recovery from a microdiscectomy last November, but it still lacked familiar firepower and a memorable moment. Finished T6 at Bellerive in the 2018 PGA Championship, but he’ll need another to elbow his way into the TOUR Championship.

Returning to competition

• Robert MacIntyre ... Logged an 82 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, then withdrew due to a sore knee. At 36th in the FedExCup, he’ll have to finish inside the top 15 at Bellerive to advance. En route to that goal, he’ll be taking it one round at a time as he weighs his level of comfort against the incremental financial differences outside that range. Already exempt into all Signature Events and on a trajectory to qualify for all majors in 2027, his focus is singular. Therefore, because of the concern over him physically, the right move is to abstain in all formats.

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