It’s the time of the year when the golf nerds break out the spreadsheets, and even the pros themselves start to take a peek at the standings.

Only three events remain in the FedExCup Fall as the top-100 cutoff bears down on a large chunk of the PGA TOUR membership. The potential machinations are bountiful, as anyone who tees it up at next week’s World Wide Technology Championship has a mathematical possibility to jump into the top 100, no matter how poor their season has been to this point. In that opportunity, drama will emerge.

This year’s bubble is set to be more cutthroat than any in the PGA TOUR’s modern era. Since 1983, the cutoff for full-time status has been the top 125. But in an effort to amplify the competition, increase the meaning of a TOUR card and make the product more compelling, the number of fully-exempt cards was reduced. Now, only the top 100 in the FedExCup Fall standings after the season’s end will maintain status for 2026. That means players who previously would’ve been safe at this point – take Joel Dahmen at No. 108, for example – are now squarely in the fight to keep their jobs.

How will it all play out? That’s another added bit of intrigue. We’re in uncharted territory in the first year of a new system, without history to indicate how it might play out. So, ahead of a three-week frenzied stretch to end the year, where does the top-100 bubble stand? Who is in? Who is out? And how much movement should we expect to see?

Let’s look at the standings first.

FedExCup Fall standings

*Already exempt for 2026 season

The bubble, as always, is made up of a wide variety of players. There are rookies (Isaiah Salinda and Jesper Svensson), former TOUR winners (Taylor Moore and Lee Hodges), aging standouts looking to extend long streaks of status (Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar), a bevy of veterans familiar with grinding for status (Dahmen, Lanto Griffin, Sam Ryder, Beau Hossler) and everything in between.

Some of the biggest names on the bubble already have their card locked up for 2026 through a different category. Max Homa, Tom Kim, Billy Horschel and Austin Eckroat are all exempt because of previous victories. Adam Scott is exempt via finishing top 30 in the 2024 FedExCup standings (which is a two-year exemption). Pierceson Coody is exempt via finishing in the top 20 on the Korn Ferry Tour points list.

How much movement is conceivable over the next three weeks? Through four events, five players who began the fall inside the top 100 have dropped out: Valimaki (87th to 102nd), Dahmen (93rd to 108th), Patrick Fishburn (95th to 104th), Andrew Putnam (96th to 110th) and Moore (100th to 115th).

Rico Hoey (106th to 61st), Steven Fisk (140th to 67th), Vince Whaley (101st to 89th), Homa (111th to 93rd) and Thorbjorn Olesen (120th to 97th) have jumped in.

In 2024, eight players moved in – or out – from the beginning of the fall to the end. The comparison is a bit apples-to-oranges, with 125 cards promoting opportunities for more volatility than the 100 cards available this year. Still, it serves as a barometer for what’s possible.

There’s a good chance we could see more than five that are currently projected. The margins are slim for a wide swath of the bubble boys. David Lipsky (No. 100) has 479 FedExCup points, while Kuchar (No. 120) has 386 points. That deficit could be erased by a single solo-sixth performance (100 FedExCup points) or three consecutive solo-27th finishes (32.5 points each), though that assumes nobody between Lipsky and Kuchar would amass enough points to jump ahead themselves. Still, it’s a reminder that significant movement is still possible. Whether it actually happens is another story – one that will play out over the next three weeks. Buckle up.