Sleeper Picks: Valero Texas Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Chris Kirk (+9000) … With his 40th birthday creeping up in May, it’s fair to temper expectations over time, but chalk him up as among the leaders in Strokes Gained: Wisdom with plenty of local knowledge to utilize. The bona fide horse for the course hasn’t connected for a top 20 anywhere since the BMW Championship last August – that no doubt contributes to the attractive odds to win the Valero Texas Open – but he has four top 10s at TPC San Antonio, including a T10 in his last trip in 2023.

Top 5

Keith Mitchell (+700) … When you match his proficiency off the tee with a stingy par-72 track like TPC San Antonio, there’s reason to get excited about the possibilities, and he delivered with top 20s in his last two appearances (2021, 2024). Form upon arrival also matters, of course, but he checks that box, too, with a season-best T18 at last week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open. Ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, greens in regulation and par-5 scoring. The bonus is that he also was a first-round co-leader at both of the last tournaments.

Top 10

Bud Cauley (+360) … The early narrative for the 35-year-old was his chase and eventual takedown of terms via a Major Medical Extension with a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Despite a 74 in that finale, but perhaps with weight lifted for having retained status, he doubled down with a T4 the very next week at the Valspar Championship. Now 40th in the FedExCup, he’s quickly and efficiently been able to update his goals. Possesses one of the most consistently strong bags among his peers and slots third in adjusted scoring. And although it’s been a while, a top 10 at TPC San Antonio wouldn’t be unprecedented. In six career starts, a T10 in 2017 is the best among four paydays.

Top 20

Andrew Putnam (+290) … “Hi. My name is Rob, and I have a man-crush on Andrew Putnam.” That’s news only to new readers, but how can I not?! The thing is, the affection often is unrequited due to above-average inconsistency round to round. Consider that he’s inside the top 30 on the PGA TOUR in fairways hit, greens in regulation and adjusted scoring, but he’s still without a top 10 in eight starts. In fact, it’s been over a year since his most recent. However, he’s 6-for-7 at TPC San Antonio with a pair of top 20s, including a T14 last year when he didn’t need to break 70 (and didn’t) in any round.

Top English

Harry Hall (+450) … Anytime we dive into these subsets, it must have as much to do with the talent as it does who he needs to beat. In this case for the Brit, he stands firmly on his own with a pair of top 10s among four top 25s this season, including just last week in Houston where he finished T18 with a sporty 65 on Sunday. His game improves almost exponentially as he nears the hole. Essentially average from tee to green, his touch around the targets and putting has him 33rd in adjusted scoring. In other words, his confidence has been fortified since breaking through at the ISCO Championship last year. He’s also 2-for-2 at TPC San Antonio, so he knows where the mines are buried. As for his competition, Tommy Fleetwood (+130) is the primary. As much faith that he deserves (at No. 6 in the Power Rankings), Fleetwood is not immune to the trouble on this course, so your hope is for him to find some and perhaps look ahead to the Masters if he can’t gain traction in the Texas Hill Country. (Hall is not currently exempt into the major.) Others in play here are Matt Fitzpatrick (+450), who continues to scuffle, and Justin Rose (+600), who’s making his course debut. If you’re feeling even friskier, Hall is +550 for Top UK&I, in which Seamus Power (+750) is the shortest among the additional challengers.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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