Sleeper Picks: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Cam Davis (+11000) … Since precisely zero of my picks for this bet since we evolved into markets for Sleepers have prevailed, this one is a bone specifically for the bettors who care only about the analytics. First, though, the 30-year-old is proven to be streaky, so it’d be foolish to hurl a dart through a crosswind without merit. To that end, he extinguished a 0-for-5 skid with a T13 at the RBC Heritage, thus proving the value of a guaranteed payday. He and partner Adam Svensson then placed T32 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with 61s in both rounds of better ball. So, with a reversal in form, we now focus solely on Davis’ penchant as a scorer. Although he’s 127th on the PGA TOUR in Greens in Regulation, he’s No. 1 in converting those chances into par breakers and second in putts per GIR. With a shootout on tap in his debut at TPC Craig Ranch, even an average week on approach could thrust him into contention. C’mon, Aussie!

TOP 5

Stephan Jaeger (+700) … Not unlike a victory, a lot has to go right to pay off this finish, but the native of Germany does a lot right, so it’s a proper marriage of hope and hit. Since laying the foundation for a successful season with a T3 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he’s bubbled up occasionally, just not as consistently as his profile as a scorer suggests that he should. Since golf is hard, we can accept that he’s “close.” He cashed in each of his first three tries at TPC Craig Ranch, the last pair resulting in a top 20. His scoring average in those 12 rounds is 67.25.

TOP 10

Ryan Gerard (+410) … If there’s a snub in the Power Rankings, it’s this guy. The 25-year-old is 35th in the FedExCup, with his pair of top 10s for the season in the first two stops in Texas – ninth at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and a runner-up at the Valero Texas Open – and he’s connected for another three top 20s. To classify his tee-to-green game as nothing special would be to put the wrong spin on the fact that he does no harm. The sum of those sticks is greater than the parts, and that allows his primary weapon to the damage on the greens. Currently 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting and sixth in adjusted scoring. Also bursts out of the gates often to slot sixth in first-round scoring average, so give him a look at +6500 to be atop the leaderboard after 18 holes.

TOP 20

Henrik Norlander (+270) … When the Swede finds a groove, you don’t question it; instead, you hop aboard and watch where it goes. He and partner Luke List fulfilled their projection for a Top 10 at +650 in this space last week, so let’s ride the momentum. Prior to that team event and on his own ball, Norlander recorded three top 20s in his most recent four starts. His ball-striking remains elite, but the putter has been keeping pace to show us what a difference it makes.

TOP UNITED KINGDOM & IRELAND

Seamus Power (+240) … While I’m also enamored by him for a Top 20 at +210, getting more than double the kickback to beat only six others, not only is it more intriguing, it’s potentially more lucrative. The Irishman is 3-for-4 at TPC Craig Ranch with a T9, a T17 and a T19. His scoring average in 14 rounds is a sporty 67.71. He’s also fresh off a T18 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, his third top 20 of the season. His week-to-week inconsistency belies a reliable balance throughout his bag, so he deserves the reach more than most others. His primary competition in this market consists of Harry Hall (also +240) and Matt Wallace (+260). Hall’s forgettable record here precedes his surge of 2024, so you could always split the ticket to hedge, while Wallace’s T4 last year presents more as an anomaly across his body of work, as he’s 150th in the FedExCup.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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