NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Justin Lower (+7500) … While you can’t refute his literal fit among converging trends, they present more as a joint coincidence because he’s not a regular contender. Yes, he was the runner-up at El Cardonal at Diamante last year and he’s fresh off a consistently strong T3 at the Bank of Utah Championship, but the 36-year-old could be a more attractive outright at next week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship where he’s cashed in all four appearances for top 20s, the last two of which for a top 10. (Jot that down and keep it handy.) But there’s also no denying that he’s feelin’ it right now, so the play is to capitalize on longer odds as he chases his first PGA TOUR title. Erik van Rooyen was the first to prevail at El Cardonal in 2023 at +6600, while Austin Eckroat connected at +3500 last year, so Lower’s range is particularly tasty as the overall learning curve among membership flattens.

Top 5

Mackenzie Hughes (+1300) ... Bettors always would rather play Whac-A-Mole than to lay down the same investment without any hope that the rascal even will appear. The Canadian can be frustrating in the short-term, but he’s delivered often enough that the same seasoned bettors have accepted the reality that it’s only about the timing to get paid, not its mere possibility. In his last 16 starts, he’s cashed 10 times. Only half went for a top 35 but four of those were top 10s, the most recent of which was a T7 at the Procore Championship. Both of his podium finishes were during the spring. And in his only prior appearance at El Cardonal, he finished seventh in 2023.

Top 10

Max McGreevy (+500) ... There are always goals to chase, but in a perfect world – or at least how he might prefer to line up his November – this would be his last start of the 2025 PGA TOUR season. It’s a narrative that I introduced in the Top 100 Watch for the Bank of Utah Championship. He’s poised to defend his title at the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan, but that happens to be the same week as The RSM Classic, where he also could play if necessary. At 97th in the FedExCup and fresh off a T11 at Black Desert (that chased a T33-T12 fortnight in Japan), he has the momentum to seal the deal at El Cardonal. Ride shotgun alongside.

Top 20

Greyson Sigg (+290) … It’s déjà vu all over again for the 30-year-old finishing his fourth year on TOUR. After failing to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs last year, he lit up the FedExCup Fall with a pair of top 10s and another two top 25s. He dug a deeper hole this year and at a time when the target to retain status is more challenging, but he’s opened this FedExCup Fall with three top 25s and a red number in every round. It’s lifted him 22 slots in the FedExCup to 138th. With the season finale in his backyard at Sea Island, Georgia, he has reason to be hopeful for a timely haymaker, but we care only about this finish that kicks back nearly three times the investment right now. Still among the most proficient with his irons, he’ll need to continue to knock it close on approach.

Top 20

Alejandro Madariaga (+1300) … Could we already be in store for the next iteration of Michael Brennan who appeared in this very section (at +320) two weeks ago when he prevailed at the Bank of Utah Championship? Granted, before Brennan won three times en route to pacing the Fortinet Cup on the PGA TOUR Americas, he was a decorated collegian at Wake Forest University with eight wins who peaked inside the top 10 of the World Amateur Golf Ranking. Madariaga didn’t check any of those boxes while cutting his teeth at Division II Lynn University (after one year at the University of North Texas), but the 25-year-old from Puebla, Mexico, is making his PGA TOUR debut at El Cardonal while riding an active heater that’s extended a year now. After finishing fourth in earnings on the Mexican Professional Tour in 2024-25, he’s opened the new season where he left off, following a T14 and a T9 with his first victory on the circuit, which was in his last start in mid-October. Sure, these odds are as outrageous as they are long, but as the wise man once said, it’s why it’s called gambling. The confidence borne from his breakthrough win as he embraces this opportunity is reason enough for at least a fraction of a unit.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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